U.S. Tariffs Oct 2026: Exporter Response Guide

President Trump is back.

With him came a tariff bomb dropped on the whole world, and for more than a year and a half the world has been in an uproar over negotiations with the United States.

Korea is no exception. Of Korea’s USD 709.7 billion in exports in 2025, USD 122.9 billion, or 17.3%, went to the United States (Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, 2025 Annual Export-Import Trends). So the government has no choice but to pour a great deal of time and effort into negotiating with Washington.

A tariff is an export barrier that has a direct, visible impact on companies exporting to that country. That is why many companies, led by Hyundai Motor, are drawing up their own strategies and moving fast. In fact, the tariff costs borne by Hyundai Motor and Kia are estimated at about KRW 7 trillion in 2025 and more than KRW 3 trillion in the first half of 2026 (NICE Investors Service, as reported by Kyunghyang Shinmun, Oct 4, 2026).

Where U.S. tariffs stand as of October 2026 (verified facts only)

The situation has changed several times since I first wrote this in September 2025. Here is only what has been confirmed.

• July 30, 2025: Korea and the U.S. agreed in broad terms to cut reciprocal and auto tariffs from 25% to 15% in exchange for USD 350 billion in investment in the U.S. (USD 150 billion in shipbuilding + USD 200 billion in strategic investment) (Yonhap timeline, Sep 23, 2026)
• December 4, 2025: Published in the U.S. Federal Register. Tariffs on Korean autos and parts set at 15% (retroactive to Nov 1, 2025); items subject to reciprocal tariffs set at a total of 15% (retroactive to Nov 14, 2025) (Korea.kr policy briefing, Dec 4, 2025)
• February 20, 2026: In Learning Resources v. Trump, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that “IEEPA (the International Emergency Economic Powers Act) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs” (6–3; opinion and SCOTUSblog)
• Since then: The Trump administration moved through a Section 122 global tariff and, from July 24, 2026, has been imposing Section 301 “forced labor tariffs.” General imports from Korea face a total of 12.5% including the base tariff; autos remain at the 15% Section 232 tariff (Kyunghyang Shinmun, Oct 4, 2026). Note that the 12.5% does not apply to Section 232 items such as autos, steel and semiconductors.
• Government’s account: The U.S. side has said it will “keep the tariff rate at the 15% level, whether under Section 301 or any other form” (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung-kwan’s Sep 22 briefing, Aju Business Daily, Oct 1, 2026)
• Still unknown: The results of the Section 301 investigation into auto overcapacity have not yet been released. On Oct 2 (U.S. time), President Trump pressed Korea, saying he would “double” it if Korea does not agree to invest in the Alaska LNG project (Kyunghyang Shinmun, Oct 4, 2026). He did not say what he would double, though it is read as tariffs.
• If your U.S. entity is the importer: CBP has said Phase 3 of the refund process (CAPE) for the now-invalid IEEPA tariffs opens on October 6, 2026 (U.S. time). However, CBP’s position is that only parties to Court of International Trade (CIT) litigation can apply for entries liquidated more than 80 days ago, and that point is under litigation (Thompson Hine, Sep 2026). If this applies to your company, check with your customs broker and U.S. counsel right away.

In short, the legal basis for the tariffs has changed twice in a year, yet the number has stayed pinned around 15%, and on top of that there are still variables that could shake it at any time. The uncertainty remains.

So how should exporters that haven’t found their footing respond?

In such a confusing situation, how should companies just starting to trade, and traders who haven’t yet established themselves, respond?

For companies that have exported mainly to the U.S., this instability can only hit them directly.

But for companies that target retail markets directly, rather than supplying raw materials or parts B2B, the simple approach of opening new markets may work.

“So you’re saying, ‘If there’s no bread, eat meat’?”

Not quite.

First, given the overwhelming size and purchasing power of the U.S. market, it is true that finding a market to replace it is not easy.

But conversely, if you remember that the U.S. is not a single market, replacing each of its individual markets is possible.

In the U.S., culture and law differ by state, and consumer culture differs by race, region, and income level. Naturally, you cannot judge them as one market. The U.S. is not one market but a group of dozens, even hundreds, of fragmented markets bundled together.

This ultimately means that most SMEs exporting to the U.S. can find markets that replace the purchasing power of the particular parts of the U.S. market they deal with.

The data actually points in that direction. In 2025, exports to the U.S. fell 3.8%, but exports to ASEAN rose 7.4% to USD 122.5 billion, and exports to the EU hit a record USD 70.1 billion. The government also assessed that “export destinations are diversifying” (MOTIE, 2025 Annual Export-Import Trends).

The third-country opportunity a tariff war creates

The advice to open new markets carries another hidden meaning.

Right now the U.S. is effectively waging a “tariff war” against the whole world. Allies are no exception, and the number of consumers unhappy with this U.S. behavior can only grow.

When I first wrote this in September 2025, there were continuing reports that Tesla sales in Europe had been falling for months, influenced by Musk, who had been actively involved in the early Trump administration. (I could not verify current figures, so I am not giving a number.)

Doesn’t that tell you something?

America’s tariff war inevitably leads to discontent among consumers in other countries, and that discontent will eventually lead to fewer purchases of American products. The space left by those American products becomes an opportunity for competitors looking to enter new markets.

In other words, exporting to third countries by taking advantage of the current situation may actually be easier.

Hedge, don’t panic

There are more than 200 countries in this world and more than 8 billion people living in it.

The size and purchasing power of the U.S. market are certainly attractive, but there are still many markets in the world besides the U.S.

U.S.-driven tariff issues and political and economic instability will clearly cause visible inconvenience for companies exporting to the U.S.

But this will be neither devastating nor permanent.

So rather than panicking and despairing, the wise move is to find new markets to hedge short-term risk, while waiting for the chance to re-enter the U.S. market once it eventually stabilizes.

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This post was originally written on September 30, 2025, and has been migrated with figures and tariff status updated as of October 5, 2026. Tariffs keep changing, so always check the latest official notices and consult experts before any actual transaction.

Related: Trump tariff war revisited